Omniscient failed to justify 5-4 favouritism but made no mistake over a mile and a quarter at Yarmouth eight days ago, still looking rough hewn in thumping At Liberty by five and a half lengths. REBEL’S ROMANCE, who is unbeaten in three starts in Europe, rates much the best option. Another personal best came via a length-and-and-a-half margin from Live In The Dream in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip at Sandown Park on the second Saturday in June. And Mitbaahy was unfortunate not to rack up the hat-trick over the same course and distance on the Coral-Eclipse undercard last time out.
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Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.
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The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts. Will Buick’s partner dropped to handicap company for a valuable event on Sandown Park’s Coral-Eclipse undercard and lost little in defeat with a three-quarter-length second to Sinjaari. There is more to come on the fifth outing of Checkandchallenge’s promising career and he’s fancied to take the step back up in class in his stride.
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Brian Ellison was very confident that he was coming back to form when asked in a recent interview about his 9-year-old for Sky Sports Racing. From the surface underneath, to the topography of the track, to the tightness of the bends, every racecourse in Britain and Ireland is unique. Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.
Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 1 👇🏼
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- If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible.
- It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh.
- And nor should a 140-rated mare be in the same conversation as a 165+ gelding.
- It wouldn’t surprise me if he was contesting Group 1 contests by the end of the season.
- He will appreciate a stamina test; a good pace and soft ground and I think he will get it here.
Earlier on the programme, CHECKANDCHALLENGE can keep Will Buick’s in-form run going in the Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25). This is the right level for the three-year-old, who still has plenty of potential on the back of his solid effort last time out. MITBAAHY is fancied to win the battle of the fastest horses on Goodwood’s card in the King George Qatar Stakes (3.35). He has plenty of gears and the drop to 5f worked the oracle last time. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was contesting Group 1 contests by the end of the season.
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- He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him.
- That’s a verbose way of saying he probably achieved a 90-odd level of form on the flat before sights were switched to timber.
- That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence.
- The current going is Heavy which should improve given the favourable forecast.
- Having access to a variety of tipsters who cover a multitude of races ensures that punters can make well-informed decisions across different races and even different countries.
- If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
- His Grade I success at Naas last time was achieved with authority and we know that he can battle when needed.
- He’s only going to improve on that as he gets older, I’m very pleased with the run.
Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he’s a place possible at least… Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, made a highly impressive return to action here on Trials Day. While she’s the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina. It’s possible that Luccia could be sent on in a bid to force a stronger pace, she herself having made all in the race when her barn mate Iberico flopped; but that’s not her normal run style. And nor should a 140-rated mare be in the same conversation as a 165+ gelding. I retain the faith in him and think he has an excellent chance at a decent price.
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Five-year-old Marie’s Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut. The outcome of the race largely depends on Lossiemouth’s ability to stay the 2m 4f distance today. However, her tendency to be keen raises a doubt about her effectiveness over longer distances. Last year’s runner-up, Love Envoi, is a contender for the places once again.
Energumene – Marsh Novices’ Chase – 2/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
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Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed. MT – Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season – he’s very hard to knock. A good half dozen possible pace angles here, headed perhaps by Mighty Mo Missouri.
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- He has progressed all season, and even though he may have put in his poorest performance so far, he clearly has the profile to continue stepping up in distance on route to a very promising chasing career.
- The No Foto Needed service is an established member SBC’s Premium Tipster range and features winning racing tips from a true racing expert.
- Other top horses he has ridden include Solwhit, the 2013 World Hurdle winner and 2006 Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition.
- If you’ve been reading stuff on here for any length of time, you’ll have noted myself, but especially Dave Renham and Chris Worrall, evangelising about the value of draw and run style.
- Contributing to creating and maintaining this Ayr Gold Cup Preview are at hand, Andy and James.
- She’s a proven Group performer and David Egan will be hoping he can get plenty of cover from stall four.
- And if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada.
Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant. Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates. These figures Bolts Up Daily are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%.
Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 3 👇🏼
Evaluating the track record of tipsters at prestigious events like Royal Ascot can provide insights into their expertise and reliability. It’s crucial to stay updated with reliable sources to make well-informed decisions when placing your bets. Here you will find our Lucky 15 which includes our Notebook runners (now on oddschecker), the Daily Eye Catcher and Value Tip (also on oddschecker).
Ayr Gold Cup Preview
Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys’ veins for the first rising tape of the week. The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it’s going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities…
- Then, you head to the horse racing section and find the race that you want to bet on.
- If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern.
- In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices.
- CALIFORNIA GEM makes plenty of appeal as she steps into handicap company – and tackles six furlongs – for the first time.
- POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects.
- Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners.
Presenting Percy wins by several lengths
The thrice-winner sample size is only 70 (all other samples across the table were in at least multiple hundreds and generally thousands). The percentages in isolation are irrelevant, especially when comparing different going descriptions. This is because less extreme going conditions tend to have bigger field sizes and, therefore, smaller win percentages.
The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase – a key prep for this – last time. There he won in a field of 17 which contained plenty of dead wood; so, too, will Day 2’s Cross Country field. He was effective rather than eye-catching in winning but that was his first cross-country effort in public.
- RELIEF RALLY looks the one to beat after a hugely promising effort when second at Newbury a fortnight ago.
- But, on the back of another 134-day lay-off, Will Buick’s partner sprang back to form in the Listed Fred Archer Stakes at Goodwood on the final Saturday of June.
- The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel.
- The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.
- Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles.
- All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years.
- In the absence of a reliable option, I’ll take a chance on Heaven Help Us being trained for the day in what seem to be her favoured conditions.
If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank. Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.
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- Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early.
- My opinion is that those two perspectives are not mutually exclusive and both hold water.
- Her price represents a very solid each way bet in an open section and, as you know by now, if she doesn’t run it’s money back.
- Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going.
- The Marsh feels a bit like the coward’s route for a horse boasting his CV.
- The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years.
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It’s fair to say that the Tizzard stable was in poor form at that moment and is firing much better now; if that was a factor in War Lord’s defeat, he might be over-priced. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Thunder Rock could be an ‘in running’ play if he’s travelling well in the first mile. Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he’s won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it’s only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days.